Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 0.310648 0.353212 0.399424 0.453319 0.514449 0.581637 0.661095
2025-09-21 0.242351 0.297468 0.361933 0.442887 0.541849 0.658930 0.808054
2025-09-28 0.192449 0.253120 0.329012 0.430897 0.564149 0.732611 0.962012
2025-10-05 0.164141 0.230081 0.317822 0.443082 0.617408 0.851650 1.190838
2025-10-12 0.137302 0.204211 0.298513 0.441064 0.651248 0.950130 1.408339
2025-10-19 0.117790 0.185146 0.285306 0.445002 0.693477 1.065932 1.668092
2025-10-26 0.103720 0.171677 0.277922 0.455972 0.747276 1.205946 1.985190
2025-11-02 0.086902 0.151010 0.256073 0.440593 0.757083 1.278982 2.207948
2025-11-09 0.072009 0.131008 0.232093 0.417650 0.750408 1.323550 2.389515
2025-11-16 0.062040 0.117869 0.217620 0.408529 0.765567 1.406290 2.648302
2025-11-23 0.053600 0.106111 0.203740 0.398136 0.776463 1.482318 2.905337
2025-11-30 0.048677 0.100202 0.199681 0.405336 0.820973 1.625549 3.309022
2025-12-07 0.041642 0.089220 0.184698 0.389828 0.820747 1.686979 3.569781
2025-12-14 0.036627 0.081574 0.175211 0.384014 0.839361 1.788693 3.929449
2025-12-21 0.032122 0.074274 0.165324 0.375807 0.851719 1.879530 4.281181
2025-12-28 0.029866 0.071580 0.164857 0.388048 0.910442 2.077288 4.898088
2026-01-04 0.026930 0.066833 0.159109 0.387416 0.940015 2.215325 5.401686
2026-01-11 0.024675 0.063335 0.155686 0.391691 0.981744 2.387151 6.012200
2026-01-18 0.023021 0.061048 0.154786 0.401944 1.039554 2.605262 6.770019
2026-01-25 0.020287 0.055541 0.145156 0.388785 1.036847 2.676366 7.170662
2026-02-01 0.017574 0.049633 0.133605 0.368801 1.013394 2.692173 7.430941
2026-02-08 0.015751 0.045846 0.126991 0.360932 1.020885 2.788638 7.922092
2026-02-15 0.014095 0.042247 0.120332 0.351875 1.023718 2.873229 8.394509